The BJP is predicted to emerge the single largest party in Maharashtra and Haryana but may fall short of majority in the final outcome, says an IndiaTV-CVoter opinion poll.
In the 90-seat Haryana assembly, the BJP is projected to bag 34 seats, closely followed by Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal with 27 seats.
The Congress, ruling the state for the last 10 years, is projected to come third with 16 seats.
The Haryana Janhit Congress-Haryana Jan Chetna Party alliance may win nine seats, with the remaining four seats going to other parties and independents, says the tracking poll.
In the 2009 assembly elections in Haryana, the Congress had won 40 seats, the INLD 31, BJP four, HJC and HJP six, and “others” nine seats.
Voteshare wise, the BJP this time may get 33 percent votes followed by the INLD (28 percent), Congress (21 percent), HJC-HJP (10) and others eight percent.
In Maharashtra, the India TV-CVoter poll gives a 132-142 seat range to the BJP in the 288-seat assembly, followed by the Shiv Sena (50-60 seats).
The Nationalist Congress Party has been given a seat range of 31-41 seats, and the Congress 38-48 seats.
Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has been given a seat range of 8-14 seats. Smaller parties and independents may win 3 to 9 seats, says the opinion poll.
In 2009, the Congress-NCP United Progressive Alliance won 144 seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena won 90 and others got 54 seats.
The survey says that if the BJP gets a four percent swing on polling day (Oct 15), its seat range may increase within 176-186 seats.
Voteshare wise, the BJP is going to get 28 percent votes, followed by Shiv Sena (19.7), NCP (13.7), Congress (21.2) and MNS 7 percent. Others may get 10.4 percent votes.
Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray emerged the front runner with 16.3 percent respondents saying he was the best candidate for the chief minister’s post with 15.5 percent favouring incumbent Prithviraj Chavan
Another 15.3 percent favoured BJP leader Devendra Phadnavis. 8.2 percent respondents favoured MNS chief Raj Thackeray while 7.6 percent favoured NCP leader Ajit Pawar.
Bhupinder Singh Hooda emerged the frontrunner with 24.8 percent respondents favouring him as the best candidate for the chief minister’s post. Another 22 percent favoured INLD chief Om Prakash Chautala.
A total of 8.9 percent respondents favoured BJP leader Abhimanyu while 5.1 percent favoured another BJP leader, Rao Inderjit Singh.
The India TV-CVoter poll is based on a random probability sample of 8,707 samples for the current week (second week of October) projections.
Long term trends are calculated based upon the cumulative tracking poll data of 20,279 respondents interviewed during last 12 weeks. The margin of error is plus/minus 3 percent at state level.