SHAFAQNA- The global population is likely to shrink after the middle of this century, triggering shifts in economic power, a new report suggests. 183 of 195 countries on the planet will not be able to maintain current populations by the end of the century. North Africa and the Middle East are the only regions predicted to have a larger population in 2100 when compared to 2017.
A new report in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet, expects the global population to peak at 9.7 billion by the year 2064, with the number of people across the globe forecast to fall back to 8.8 billion by 2100. The analysis says that improvements to modern contraceptive methods and the increasingly widespread education of women could be a catalyst for a decline in global fertility rates, news.sky reported. That, according to the report, means that populations will not be sustained at current levels without a more liberal immigration approach.
Populations in 23 countries, including Japan, Spain and Italy, are forecast to decline by more than half, according to the research, with another 34 countries, including China, seeing a drop of more than 25%. Across the world, over-80s are set to outnumber under-fives by a factor of two-to-one by 2100, marking a shift in the working age population. Countries such as China, Spain, the UK and Germany are all expected to see a dramatic drop in the size of their workforce, resulting in a slowing of economic growth that will open the way for African and Arab countries to take the lead economically.
In contrast, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is anticipated to triple over the course of the century, the research said, to 3.07 billion in 2100, up from an estimated level of 1.03 billion in 2017, Cnbc told. North Africa and the Middle East are the only other regions predicted to have a larger population in 2100 when compared to 2017. Niger’s population is forecast to grow by 765% by 2100, Chad’s by 710%, South Sudan’s by 594% and Mali’s by 321%. Dr Richard Horton, editor in chief of The Lancet, said: “It offers a vision for radical shifts in geopolitical power, challenges myths about immigration, and underlines the importance of protecting and strengthening the sexual and reproductive rights of women. The 21st century will see a revolution in the story of our human civilisation.”
He further said that Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. According to Cnbc, professor Ibrahim Abubakar of University College London, who was not involved in the research, said if the findings of the study were “even half accurate” then migration would become “a necessity for all nations and not an option”.