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4 ways the Middle East can become more resilient in 2022

SHAFAQNA FUTURE- The Middle East is still trying to chart its own path in the context of global geopolitical shifts, which are further compounded by the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, the IMF projects the Middle East will expand by 4.1% in 2022, but the reality is that with fiscal and monetary space narrowing in most economies, the recovery remains uneven. For instance, 10 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have vaccinated less than 10% of their populations, which is likely to drive the virus’s resurgence in the region. Against this backdrop, it will be crucial to improve regional coordination and dialogue. Here are four concrete ways in which regional stakeholders can work together to shape an effective recovery and create a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient MENA region.

1. Coordinating a robust and inclusive recovery

The first priority is the economic recovery from COVID-19, given the resulting increase in public debt-to-GDP ratios in the region. It is imperative for governments to coordinate recovery efforts by proactively involving the private sector to ensure that their interventions have maximum effect.

2. Working towards a green MENA region

The Middle East is responsible for around 8% of global carbon emissions, but it is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world. For the first time, the average citizen is starting to experience the destructive aftershocks of climate change, for instance droughts in Iran and Iraq, floods and creeping desertification across the region. Just like COVID-19, the effects of climate change do not stop at national borders. A regional framework for addressing its causes will be crucial to avoid “beggar-thy-neighbour” scenarios.

3. Broadening the Fourth Industrial Revolution

The third area of collaboration is technology – one of the key sectors were trust needs to be rebuilt. The MENA region has witnessed a flurry of activities in this respect, exemplified by Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s adoption of personal data protection laws last fall. Given the MENA region’s young and tech-savvy population, its perennial youth unemployment problem and its adequate digital infrastructure, the tech sector has the potential to become a transformative growth pillar for the future economy of the Middle East.

4. Advancing geopolitical dialogue

Finally, the Middle East will not reach its full economic potential without a stable geopolitical environment. As such, the instability that blights half of its countries, from Afghanistan to Syria, Libya to Lebanon, needs to be addressed to avoid spill over effects. Countries hosting refugees are providing a global public service and should therefore receive additional support, not only financial but also in access to markets and technology.

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