SHAFAQNA FUTURE- The European Affairs Analyst, professor Sayed Nader Noorbakhsh, comments on Ukraine Crisis: “Regarding Ukraine is not a NATO member, there is no legal obligation for NATO countries to involve in a direct confrontation with Russia. For energy, especially gas, Europe is dependent on Russia. On the other hand, the US foreign policy currently has focused on China. These cases support the idea that the West does not seeking for a widespread military confrontation like a world war or regional battles against Russia. But the West will use specific tools, namely sanctions to target the Russian economy.”
The full text of Shafaqna future interview with Professor Norbakhsh:
Shafaqna: It seems Ukraine crisis has become a serious dispute between Russia and Europe. Is there probability of a war in the region?
Norbakhsh: “Note that in Eastern Ukraine, in the Donbas region, there has been a military confrontation between the central government forces and Russian-backed separatists for almost eight years. The status quo is due to the fact that Russia has extensively deployed its forces on the borders of Ukraine in three directions, namely to the north is the border with Belarus, an ally of Russia; to the east is the main border between Russia and Ukraine, and to the south is the Crimean Peninsula, which has joined Russia since 2014.
Russia is particularly concerned about Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and insists on this issue as its red line. Russia’s border with NATO is relatively small along the Baltic States, which is not comparable to the Ukrainian border, so that if Ukraine joins NATO, an enormous area of Russian territory will border with NATO.”
“Inside Ukraine, the situation is based on East-West dispute, the Eastern Ukraine is mostly pro-Russia Russian descendants, butin the Western Ukraine, the Russians are not welcomed. The current situation is the reason of one and a half million displaced people in the past eight years, and in the face of a full-scale war, certainly a new wave of refugees will surge towards European countries, which is a troublesome issue for Europe. On the other hand, because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, an attack to Ukraine does not force NATO countries to fulfill any obligation to involve in a direct confrontation. It would be very different in the case of the Baltic States and Poland. Currently, the West supports Ukraine in some way, but the full-scale involvement in the impending war won’t occur.”
Shafaqna: What is Ukraine’s reason to join NATO? and what are the consequences of sharing borders between Russia and NATO?
Norbakhsh: The Ukrainian government has chosen good relations with the West since 2014. Eight years ago, Russia’s first reaction was to occupy the Crimean Peninsula, and officially annexed Crimea by holding a referendum. From Russia’s point of view, NATO is considered a threat to Russia’s national interests. Especially in the North Caucasus and Volgograd region. Russia’s defense strategy in these regions is weaker than other parts, so deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine, means a direct threat to an important part of Russia’s political geography.
Russia’s preferred scenario, of course, is an allied government likeBelarus to come to power in Ukraine. Also, Russia has defined a mission for itself to support Russians and Russian-speakers outside of Russia, and this mission has been added to Russia’s foreign policy goals. Therefore, Russia considers Ukraine to be within the sphere of influence. It is noteworthy that despite the political disagreements between the Russian and Ukrainian governments, there are close ties between people of the two countries.
Shafaqna: Is there a possibility of partition of Ukraine?
Norbakhsh: This is one of the scenarios, and Russia has already shown that ‘secession of regions of other countries’ at the cost of not retreating from its geopolitical position is not a big problem. Just like in the case of Abkhazia in Georgia. So it is possible that two self-proclaimed republics would claim autonomy or separate from Eastern Ukraine.
Shafaqna: What is the reason for US intervention?
Norbakhsh: Due to Europe’s security dependence, the United States has an important role in providing security for European countries, especially Eastern Europe. The accession of Eastern European countries to NATO means their security dependence on the United States. However, Eastern European countries, such as Poland, historically, have had a negative view about Russia. Poland, Hungary, Romania, and other Eastern Europe countries were ruled by the Eastern Bloc regime for half a century. So after they joined NATO, NATO was a defensive umbrella for them, and today many people in Poland and the Baltic States believe that if they were not members of NATO, the Ukrainian experience would happen in those countries. In Poland, for example, the United States have numerous military bases. There is an anti-Russian view in Poland and this country is dependent on the United States for military reasons.
Shafaqna: Could breakout of a war result in a widespread military conflict and open the door for the United States to enter the region?
Norbakhsh: “Regarding Ukraine is not a NATO member, there is no legal obligation for countries joined NATO to involve in a direct confrontation with Russia. For energy, especially gas, Europe is dependent on Russia. On the other hand, the US foreign policy currently has focused on China. These cases support the idea that the West does not seeking for a widespread military confrontation like a world war or regional battles against Russia. But the West will use specific tools, namely sanctions to target Russian economy.”
This news is originally published by Shafaqna Persian and translated by Shafaqna English.
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