SHAFAQNA- An international affairs analyst says: “If a war breaks out, there will be enormous costs for Russia … If Putin does not attack, the Russian prestige will be damaged again … Basically, war is not the result of calculation, but, it is the result of miscalculation.”
“Russia believes that if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia’s security sphere will be threatened, so wants to attach parts of Ukrainian territory to Russia as a buffer zone. But, whether there will be a war or not, that’s another matter,” he told Shafaqna.
“Putin is right politically, but not on a legal basis. Putin says from a political aspect, ‘Have I formed a military alliance with countries bordering the United States, such as Mexico or Canada? but the United States has come to conclude a military treaty along my borders.’ We had the Warsaw Pact and NATO in the Cold War, but now all those eleven members of the Warsaw Pact have joined NATO. On the other hand, from a legal aspect, Putin is not right; because you cannot force any country to become a member of a treaty or not.” Professor Jalilvand said.
“On probability of an impending war in Ukraine, the Westerners carried out a huge propaganda on the Ukraine conflict. Now Putin is at a crossroads whether to wage a war or not. If a war breaks out, there will be enormous costs for Russia,” He continued, “Although Russia has $ 600 billion in foreign exchange reserves and could withstand economic sanctions, but in practice, because Russia’s economy is integrated into the Western economy, the pressure of the economic sanctions on Russia will convince the Russian oligarchy to put pressure on Putin as well.”
He added: “The Russian economy is not very elastic, for example, 150,000 soldiers who are currently located on the Russian-Ukrainian border, even if they only eat a kilogram of bread, it will be 150,000 kilograms of bread a day, so the Russian economy will be under pressure. If Putin does not attack, the Russian prestige will be damaged again, therefore Putin probably take the middle ground. Russia probably invade, namely the two eastern provinces of Ukraine, and as a result, there will be a new treaty like the Minsk agreement. This is maybe the best outcome for Putin, which will not be very problematic. Basically, war is not the result of calculation, but, it is the result of miscalculation.”
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