SHAFAQNA FUTURE– Recent developments in Ukraine, reasons for the suspension of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the future of relations between the two countries are among the important issues in the region, which determining the outcome of each of these developments brings other variables and developments into international relations.
“By this attack, Russia seeks to remove NATO from its borders and reclaim its authority not only in the former Soviet Union territories, but in the region and around the world.” Seyyed Hossein Mousavian, the International Affairs Analyst and a Professor at Princeton University of US, commented on Russia’s intention in attacking Ukraine.
Russia’s plans is to divide Ukraine into western and eastern parts
Regarding the outcome of the Ukraine war, Mousavian said: “Russia will lose the soft war, namely the moral battle with Ukraine; But the political-military-security outcomes of this crisis will have a decisive impact on the future of the global power equations. In the first place, Russia does not seek the full-scale occupation or annexation of Ukraine to its territory, but its priority is the overthrow of the pro-Western President Zelensky and the partition of Ukraine.
In the second phase, Kremlin may want to divide Ukraine into western and eastern parts, which in the western part, with Kyiv as the capital, the allied state of Moscow seizes the power. In the third step, Russia will re-implement the Crimean model for the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.”
“If this scenario materializes, Moscow will have significant gains and the West will pursue long-term crippling economic sanctions and supporting the Ukrainian resistance and nationalist movement so that Russia remains in the grip of sanctions and its economic and political positions will weaken, and Ukraine, as an ally of Russia, will become a country deep in recession.”
Saudi Arabia will wait for the outcome of the Vienna talks to negotiate with Iran
Regarding the future of Iran-Saudi relations, Mousavian said: “Riyadh will wait for the outcome of the nuclear talks. If JCPOA is revived, Riyadh will enter into serious and practical negotiations. If the negotiations for the revival of JCPOA fail, Riyadh will have the upper hand and will set the terms and conditions.”
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