Shafaqna English | by Dr. Abolfazl Fateh- On Saturday (02 Nov 2024) in her speech in Pennsylvania, Michelle Obama expressed concern about the possibility of a Trump victory while supporting Kamala Harris. She harshly criticized Trump, calling him “a fraud,” and said: “If the election doesn’t go in the right direction, all of us will suffer from this setback. He will destroy the education system, target women’s health, and prioritize the rich over everyone else.” Of course, such expressions of concern in an election campaign do not necessarily mean acknowledging the opponent’s victory, but rather indicate the intensity of the competition and aim to motivate supporters.
An Unexpected Poll in Harris’ Favor
Meanwhile, on Sunday, a poll from the Des Moines Register was released, showing an unexpected and, according to Fox News, shocking result. The poll, conducted on October 27 by Ms. Selzer, the renowned head of the Selzer polling firm in Iowa, shows Harris leading Trump by 3% (47 to 44) in the state. This is in contrast to a poll by the same organization a month earlier (September), which had Trump leading Harris by 4%. Although Iowa only has 6 electoral votes, it is significant as it has not voted for Democrats since Obama’s last election, instead voting for Trump in both subsequent elections. Therefore, the potential shift in Iowa is considered crucial. At the same time, another poll from Emerson College shows Trump leading Harris in the state 53 to 43, contradicting the Des Moines Register poll.
The discrepancy between these two respected polls is notable for several reasons. First, Harris’ improvement in Iowa, as shown by the Des Moines Register poll, reflects a 7% gain, which, if accurate, suggests that Harris has made significant progress. This could imply that the neighboring states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—which typically lean Democratic—might now be in Harris’ column, thus increasing her chances of winning compared to the previous day.
Another unexpected point is the difference between this poll and other reputable polls. Many partisan polls are often skewed or altered to suit the preferences of the pollsters’ supporters. However, a 13% difference between two established polling firms exceeds the margin of error and suggests that something is off. Either Ms. Selzer’s poll is flawed, or perhaps all the other polls are wrong. Did Ms. Selzer’s gender bias influence the poll in favor of Harris? Or were women underrepresented in previous polls? To clarify the situation, we will have to wait for further results.
The Decisive Role of Women in Harris’ Fate
The new poll from Iowa reveals another important point: the shift in the views of women in this state regarding Trump, as seen in the two mentioned polls. In the second poll, women, particularly independent women, have shown a significant leaning toward Harris, which has changed the dynamics in Iowa. If this is the case, why isn’t this shift seen in other polls? Regardless of the accuracy of Ms. Selzer’s poll, the role of women in the 2024 election is crucial. This is not only because a woman is a presidential candidate, but also because one of the key differences in the candidates’ platforms is abortion.
Trump has taken a conservative stance on this issue, while Harris has taken a liberal approach, each having a profound impact on the lives of women in the U.S., particularly women of childbearing age and young families. For this reason, Harris’ supporters cite her stance on abortion, healthcare, and American democratic values as the main reasons for their support. In contrast, Trump’s supporters focus on his plans for controlling inflation, immigration, and crime as the primary reasons for backing him.
In general, in USA’s elections, race, education, and gender play a significant role. Over the past 24 years, the majority of men and women without a college degree have supported Republicans, while those with college degrees have leaned toward Democrats. In the most recent election, 60% of college graduates supported Harris, while only 38% supported Trump. Meanwhile, among those without college degrees, 43% chose Harris, and 54% favored Trump.
Another divide is racial. A very high majority of Black Americans (90%) and Hispanic voters (64%) support Democrats, while a relative majority of white Americans (54%) lean toward Republicans. However, it is significant to note that, overall, women have shown more support for Democrats than men. In the latest ABC/Ipsos poll, 56% of women said they would vote for Harris if they participated in the election, while 42% would vote for Trump. This is in contrast to men, among whom 45% support Harris and 51% support Trump.
Given these statistics and the close race between the two candidates, it seems that the turnout of women—particularly Black women (with 93% supporting Harris), independent women across all age groups, and young women (ages 18-39), who have shown the highest preference (66%) for Harris—could play a pivotal role in determining whether or not the first female president of the United States will be elected.
Women Leading in Early Voting
In this context, it is worth noting that in the latest statistics from early voting in seven key battleground states, women account for 55% of early voters, compared to 45% for men. In other words, women have participated in early voting in these states at a rate 1.4 million higher than men. If this trend continues, the higher participation of women compared to men could be a positive indicator for Harris’ final numbers. However, whether the final level of women’s participation, given the majority of white men (57%) leaning toward Trump, will be sufficient to guarantee Harris’ victory remains to be seen.
Source: Etemad Newspaper