Shafaqna English | By Mohammad Aghasi*- The psychological and socio-psychological devastation of war is often more profound yet less recognized. Lebanon, having endured another conflict instigated by the Israeli regime in recent months, provides a stark example of the consequences felt by its people. One such consequence, exacerbated by the country’s prolonged state of conflict, is the growing desire among Lebanese citizens to emigrate.
Findings from the Arab Barometer trend survey reveal a consistent and increasing inclination towards migration among the Lebanese population. Despite minor fluctuations in some years, this trend has remained relatively stable, even rising in certain instances. A staggering 38% of Lebanese citizens expressed a desire to leave their homeland. This figure is comparable to the levels observed in 2022 and 2012, though it marks a 12% increase from the 26% recorded in 2018. The primary motivations driving this exodus can be attributed to the dire economic conditions, political instability, rampant corruption, and limited educational opportunities within Lebanon.
Poor economic conditions, political instability, corruption, and educational constraints are among the structural factors fueling migration. The decision to migrate is an individual act influenced by structural factors, social identity, and social networks. For many, migration represents a quest for a better life, the realization of dreams, and the pursuit of greater opportunities.
Lebanese citizens are making conscious and active decisions to migrate. These decisions are shaped by various factors such as adverse economic circumstances, insecurity, and social limitations. Young people, the educated, and those facing greater economic challenges are more inclined to emigrate. This indicates that social identity plays a significant role in shaping migratory behavior. Now, let’s examine some of the findings from these surveys:
Generational Differences:
Young people and university-educated Lebanese are more inclined to emigrate. Over half (58%) of 18-29-year-olds expressed their desire to leave Lebanon, which is double the 29% of those aged 30 and above who share a similar inclination. Similarly, individuals with university degrees are more likely to migrate than their less educated counterparts (46% versus 33%).
Economic Motivations:
Economic conditions remain the primary reason for emigration from Lebanon. Given that virtually no citizens hold a positive view of the economy or expect it to improve, it is not surprising that nearly seven out of ten potential migrants in Lebanon (72%) cite economic conditions as their main motivation for leaving.
Security and Political Factors:
While economic concerns remain the primary driver of emigration from Lebanon, security and political issues have increasingly become significant factors for those considering migration. Security concerns, exacerbated by rising tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, have emerged as the second most common reason for emigration, motivating 27% of potential migrants in 2024 – a 14% increase from 13% in 2022. Concerns about corruption, a pervasive issue acknowledged by nearly all Lebanese, have also surfaced as a driver for migration, rising from 16% in 2022 to 24% in 2024. Similarly, the percentage of potential Lebanese migrants citing political issues as a reason for emigration has increased from 16% in 2022 to 23% in 2024.
Educational and Academic Opportunities:
Lebanese citizens are increasingly driven to seek better educational opportunities abroad. The latest data indicates that 21% expressed a desire to leave for education in 2024, a significant increase from 14% in 2022.
Low Rates of Illegal Migration:
Despite ongoing economic, political, and security challenges, only 17% of potential Lebanese migrants stated they would leave their country without proper documentation, the lowest rate among MENA countries surveyed in 2023-24.
Top Migration Destinations:
Among potential Lebanese migrants, Canada is the preferred destination, with 32% naming it as their top choice, followed by Germany at 28% and France at 25%. Australia comes in fourth with 24%, while the United States ranks fifth with 21%. In the Persian Gulf region, Qatar stands at 21%, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 16% and Saudi Arabia at 12%.
Large-scale emigration could lead to structural changes in Lebanon, including population decline, shifts in age composition, and a decrease in the skilled workforce. Although migration cannot be defined as an organized social movement, it can be viewed as a collective action aimed at improving living conditions.
Migration from Lebanon is a complex phenomenon rooted in both structural factors and individual actions. It can be understood as a dynamic process influenced by various social, cultural, and economic factors. To address this phenomenon, the Lebanese government must seek structural reforms in the economy, improve the political and social situation, and invest in education and job creation.
* Mohammad Aghasi is an Iranian Sociologist and Public Opinion Researcher.