Shafaqna English | Mohammad Aghasi*- The Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025, are the sixth parliamentary elections in the country since the United States invasion in 2003. These elections, which will determine the 329 members of the Council of Representatives, will play a significant role in electing the President and approving the Prime Minister, and in the future of Iraq and its people.
However, Iraqi public opinion regarding these elections is influenced by multiple factors, including widespread corruption, distrust in the political system, changes in the electoral law, and regional influences. These elections face an unprecedented challenge of declining public participation (a predicted 31%), which necessitates attention.
Social Contexts of Voting in Iraq
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, Iraq has witnessed significant political transformations. The Iraqi social system was a tribal/clan-based system, and the post-2003 political system was influenced by it, shaped by ethno-sectarian power-sharing (Shia, Sunni, Kurd).
However, this structure has faced widespread criticism due to corruption, inefficiency, and foreign influence. A survey by the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies (2024) shows that 87% of Iraqis want to eliminate this system because it privileges specific groups instead of serving the public.
Socio-intellectual changes in the new Iraq are very serious. In a survey conducted last year at Iraqi universities, for which the author was the scientific supervisor and designer, a question was asked about how respondents would like to introduce themselves. 34.4% of respondents identified themselves as “Iraqi,” while 29.1% considered themselves “a member of a tribe.”
This issue is highly significant in Iraq, which has had and still has a tribal system. 13.5% of respondents also stated in this question that they would like to be introduced as a human being.
Such social changes have also led to social protests in the new Iraq. The October 2019 protests (Tishreen Movement) demonstrated deep public dissatisfaction with corruption, unemployment, and poor public services. These protests led to reforms in the electoral law, including changing the electoral system to a single non-transferable vote in 83 electoral districts in 2021, aimed at increasing transparency and opportunities for independent candidates.
However, in 2023, the electoral law reverted to the proportional representation system based on the Sainte-Laguë method, which favored larger parties and sparked much criticism.
The 2021 elections had the lowest turnout in post-2003 history at 41%. This decrease in participation indicates a decline in public trust in the electoral process and the political system. Surveys show that more than 90% of Iraqis demand a change in the ethno-sectarian system, believing it serves a specific group rather than the majority.
It should be noted that administrative corruption is very high in Iraq for various reasons. According to Transparency International’s report (2024), Iraq ranks 154th out of 180 countries in the corruption index.
Polls and Public Opinion Status in Iraq
According to a survey by the Al-Bayan Center for Planning and Studies in late 2024, only 31% of eligible voters intend to participate in the 2025 elections, indicating a further decrease in participation compared to the 2021 elections. Over 60% of respondents cited corruption and political stagnation as the main reasons for their disinterest in the elections. This decline in trust is particularly evident among the youth, who constitute the majority of Iraq’s population.
Many Iraqis believe that the reforms promised after the 2019 protests, such as reducing corruption and improving public services, have not been fully implemented. However, the state of public opinion can be well analyzed in the following sections.
Manipulation of Iraqi Public Opinion by Social Media Networks
Social media networks have become a powerful tool for manipulating public opinion due to their widespread influence among Iraqi youth, who form the bulk of the country’s population. With the increasing number of users on platforms like TikTok (23.9 million users) and Facebook (17.9 million) in 2023, these networks have provided a platform for disseminating information, political advertising, and even misinformation.
In 2024, forty percent of political content related to the elections contained misinformation (Digital Media Observatory “IRAQI DOM”). One of the main manipulation methods is the use of fake accounts and bots to amplify specific narratives, such as discrediting political groups or foreign countries. For example, posts on Iraqi social media claiming “Iraq is occupied by Iran” or “Iraqi resources are wasted for foreign interests” have gone viral, often without credible evidence, aiming to create division and incite ethnic and religious sentiments.
These actions, especially on the eve of the 2025 elections, have intensified with the aim of reducing participation and distrust in the political system. Furthermore, social media, due to its speed of dissemination and wide reach, is a tool for conditioning public opinion. Emotional and biased content, such as rumors about water scarcity or economic problems, can easily influence the public mindset.
This content is often guided by foreign or domestic groups with specific interests and exploits social divisions and economic discontent. However, social media also has positive potential, such as increasing public awareness and supporting civil movements.
Distrust in the Electoral Process
Concerns about the integrity of the electoral process also play a significant role in shaping public opinion. Technical problems such as inaccuracies in voter lists, vulnerabilities in the electronic voting system, and procedural irregularities in past elections remain unresolved.
The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq (IHEC) enjoys relative trust from the international community, but public trust in it has declined. In the December 2023 provincial elections, participation was only 21%, partly due to the requirement of using biometric cards and widespread boycotts. This experience has led many Iraqis to view elections as a tool for reproducing a corrupt political system rather than a path to reform.
Impact of Economic and Regional Factors
Economic dissatisfaction is another key factor. Iraq’s economy is heavily dependent on global oil markets, and the drop in oil prices below $75 per barrel and disruptions in oil deliveries from the Kurdistan region have put significant pressure on the federal budget. These problems, coupled with delays in salary payments and poor public services, have fueled public discontent.
Surveys show that 70% of Iraqi youth (UNICEF survey) believe they do not have a good future in the country, and more than a third are willing to emigrate. From a regional perspective, tensions between Iran and the United States, as well as Iraq’s relations with neighboring countries like Turkey and Syria, have influenced public opinion.
Three main scenarios
As a forward-looking summary, Iraqi public opinion on the eve of the 2025 elections is characterized by a combination of despair, distrust, and a desire for change. The decline in electoral participation from 80% in 2005 to 41% in 2021, and a predicted 31% in 2025, indicates a deep legitimacy crisis in the political system. This crisis is exacerbated by factors such as corruption, inefficiency, foreign influence, and the inability to respond to the demands of the youth. The Iraqi parliamentary elections in 2025 face three main scenarios:
- Participation below 30% (high probability): A sharp decline in participation will lead to a legitimacy crisis and a new wave of protests.
- Victory of traditional parties (medium probability): Continuation of the current system with the same economic and political challenges, but with increased public dissatisfaction.
- Emergence of new movements (low probability): The formation of reformist forces could revive hope for change, but their success requires broad support.
Each of these scenarios will have a direct impact on Iraq’s future stability. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani’s efforts to create relative stability since 2022 have gained the attention of some Iraqis, but this stability is fragile and dependent on regional economic and political factors. To rebuild public trust, there is a need for fundamental reforms in the electoral process, increased transparency, and responsiveness to public demands, especially those of the youth. Without these changes, the 2025 elections may deepen the political system’s legitimacy crisis instead of solving problems.
*Mohammad Aghasi is a Sociologist and Public Opinion Researcher.
Note: Shafaqna do not endorse the views expressed in the article