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Turning Yemen ceasefire agreement into a reality will be a slog

SHAFAQNA | By Leila Yazdani : Although the Hodeidah deal is seen as a crucial step towards a diplomatic solution in Yemen  , but observers fear Hodeidah deal may not lead to end of Yemen’s war. Clashes broke out in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah just minutes after a ceasefire took effect at midnight Tuesday, till analysts announce that without peace Yemen crisis could worsen in 2019.

For those who have been horrified by the humanitarian catastrophe that has been Yemen’s civil war, last week brought two welcome and long-overdue developments that could signify that this conflict is turning a corner. However, neither can be considered definitive. Indeed, only one promises to have any immediate impact on the war, and how much of an impact it will have still very much remains to be seen. It is the first opportunity in a long time for all sides to show goodwill and start building some trust. Without a minimum degree of mutual confidence, a political solution to the conflict could never materialize. But the implementation of the deal on Hodeidah remains a huge challenge for the international community.

A high number of Yemenis have been dying in “very dramatic circumstances” as a result of food shortage and the war in Yemen has devastated the country and provoked extreme starvation, most notably among the country’s children. Some 85,000 children under the age of five may have died there since 2015, according to Save the Children, the international childrens’ relief organization. Without peace, Yemen will be facing in 2019 a much worse situation than today.

Clashes continue in port city of Hodeidah

Yemen peace talks in Sweden succeeded in getting the warring sides to agree to a ceasefire in Hodeidah but experts are sceptical that de-escalation will guarantee lasting peace.

But hours after the Hodeidah ceasefire agreement was announced, sporadic fighting broke out in the east of the province. Heavy clashes were reported in Hodeidah city on Saturday night, and on Sunday the UN announced that the ceasefire would start at midnight on Tuesday.

The fighting south and east of Hodeidah began Saturday night and continued until Sunday afternoon, a development that does not bode well for a cease-fire in Hodeidah, whose port sees about 70 percent of Yemen’s food aid and other imports coming into the country, valley morning star reported .

Fighting has erupted between Houthi and forces loyal to Yemen’s government near the strategic Red Sea port of Hodeida, leaving at least 12 people dead and 25 others wounded from both sides, officials said on Sunday, just two days ahead of the implementation of a cease-fire agreed in talks in Sweden earlier this week.

Would this round of peace talks have any difference?

The last time United Nations Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths attempted to organize Yemen peace talks—in September—was a complete failure, lobelog reported.

Past attempts at negotiations between the rebels and the Yemeni government had failed to reach any kind of accord. Would this round be any different?

Although the talks in Sweden began with low expectations, they achieved progress on a prisoner swap involving about 15,000 captives, scheduled to be completed by January 20, and most importantly the agreement on a ceasefire and withdrawal of all forces from the port city of Hodeidah.

Bringing a halt to fighting in the city had been one of the UN’s main goals for the talks, since its port is the main entry point for food and aid shipments to Yemen. In response to the reports of clashes, the Office of the UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Martin Griffiths, tweeted that the Special Envoy “expects the parties to respect their obligations to the text and in the spirit of the Stockholm Agreement”, cnn reported. The tweet continues, saying that the Special Envoy expects both sides “to engage in the instant implementation of the terms of the provisions” in the agreement.

A monitoring mechanism

The UN-led consultations concluded on Thursday with a series of agreements that, if implemented, will alleviate Yemen’s humanitarian crisis and could pave the way for a negotiated peace. The talks were an opportunity to give momentum to the peace process. “The people who can stop the war are not necessarily the people who can build peace,” a UN official told The National. However, the UN believes that those who can take the first steps towards peace are the ones who are running the war, the official said.

A monitoring mechanism, which would need the backing of a council resolution, is being prepared and expected to be deployed within the next few days.

Ceasefire in Hodeidah ends ‘within minutes

However, a UN official mentioned that a monitoring mechanism, which would need the backing of a council resolution, is being prepared and expected to be deployed, but ceasefire in Hodeidah ends ‘within minutes’. Clashes broke out in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah just minutes after a ceasefire took effect at midnight Tuesday, BBC reported. Government forces and the Houthi have accused each other of breaking the ceasefire.

The ceasefire is doomed

Skirmishes and clashes like those seen in Hodeidah over the past three days are not in themselves a sign that the ceasefire is doomed. Even in previous ceasefires, there was a huge de-escalation infighting, but still sporadic fighting here and there, like we’ve seen over the past few days.

The war, in other words, continues despite these promising developments. The agreement is welcome news and a step in the right direction but the hard part starts now … Turning this agreement into a reality on the ground will be a slog and a lot could go wrong.

 

Read more from Shafaqna:

Yemen’s warring parties reach Hodaidah ceasefire agreement

Yemen’s Saudi-backed government rejects UN troops in Hodeidah

ANSARULLAH: CLOSING SANA’A AIRPORT IS A WAR CRIME

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