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Shift in UK inflation expectations trend

Shafaqna English– A fresh survey from Citi and YouGov, published on Tuesday, indicates that British public inflation expectations have taken an unexpected turn in August.

This change breaks a clear downward pattern observed in recent months, suggesting that consumers are becoming more pessimistic about the near‑term economic outlook. The reversal is particularly noteworthy given that it comes at a time when policymakers had hoped that earlier falls would continue.

The survey results show a pronounced jump in both short‑ and longer‑run inflation forecasts. Short‑term expectations—for the next 12 months—soared from 3.4% in July to 3.9% in August, an increase of 50 basis points.

Meanwhile, expectations for inflation over the longer term climbed even more sharply, reaching 4.1%—the highest figure recorded since April—compared with 3.7% a month earlier. This parallel rise implies that the public no longer views recent price increases as temporary, which could reinforce inflationary pressures through higher demands for wages and prices.

Source: Reuters

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