Shafaqna English– JPMorgan’s economists issued a warning on Friday(24 Jul 2026) that the global economy faces an additional inflationary threat from the rapid intensification of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which, when coupled with already elevated energy prices, is projected to increase worldwide inflation by 0.3 percentage points by the end of next year.
The report underscores that this impact will be most acutely felt in emerging markets, where higher food and fuel costs are likely to exacerbate existing economic vulnerabilities and potentially trigger social unrest.
Current meteorological forecasts indicate an 81% likelihood that the ongoing El Nino event will evolve into either a “very strong” or “super” El Nino by the end of this calendar year.
Furthermore, there is a 97% probability that these anomalous climate conditions will persist well into the next year, extending the potential for weather-related disruptions to agricultural production, energy infrastructure, and global supply chains.