Shafaqna English– In a warning issued on Monday(3 Aug 2026), economists and forecasters from the professional services firm EY cautioned that the United Kingdom’s economy could face a contraction in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to maritime traffic beyond the middle of next year.
The strategic waterway is a critical artery for global oil shipments, and any prolonged disruption would likely exacerbate inflationary pressures, disrupt supply chains, and undermine consumer and business confidence, potentially tipping the UK into a recessionary phase in the medium term.
Based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened by the end of September this year, EY has slightly revised its growth forecast for the UK economy for the current year, lowering it marginally from 0.9% to 0.8%. Looking ahead to 2027, the firm projects that on the same basis—namely, a successful reopening of the strait—the economy will expand by 1.2%.
However, this outlook remains highly conditional, and any delay in resolving the geopolitical impasse could force a significant downward revision of these estimates.